01. Detection attribution & prediction of changes in species distributions

Mr Sun Kim1,2, Dr. Brigitte Sommer2,3, Prof. John Pandolfi1,2 1Australian Research Council Centre Of Excellence For Coral Reef Studies, The University Of Queensland, St.Lucia, Australia, 2School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, St.Lucia, Australia, 3School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Australia Climate change is expected to reduce habitability of current…

Dr Jonathan Lenoir1, Dr Romain Bertrand2, Dr Lise Comte3, PhD Luana Bourgeaud4, Dr Tarek Hattab5, Dr Jérôme Murienne4, Dr Gaël Grenouillet4 1UR “Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés” (EDYSAN), UMR7058 CNRS, Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France, 2Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, UMR5321 CNRS, Université Toulouse III, Toulouse,…

Dr Gabriel Jorda1, Dr Nuria Marba2, Dr Scott Bennett2, Dr Julia Santana-Garçon2, Dr Susana Agustí3, Dr Carlos Duarte3 1Instituto Español De Oceanografía, Palma, Spain, 2Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies (IMEDEA), University of the Balearic Islands – Spanish Council for Scientific Research (UIB-CSIC), Esporles, Spain, 3King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Red Sea Research Center…

Mr Henry Hakkinen1 1University of Exeter, Penryn, United Kingdom There have been a huge number of species introductions globally, but it is not clear how the novel biotic and abiotic factors species face in their introduced range determine their naturalised distributions. Species introductions represent a series of natural experiments that tests how strongly species are…

Miss Alexandra Gardner1, Dr Ilya Maclean1, Professor Kevin Gaston1 1Environment and Sustainability Institute, University Of Exeter, Penryn, United Kingdom Species distribution models (SDMs) have played a pivotal role in predicting how species move in response to climate change. To generate reliable and realistic predictions from these models requires the use of climate variables that adequately…

MSc Ana Giraldo Ospina1,2, Professor Gary  Kendrick1,2, Dr Thomas Wernberg1,2, Dr Renae Hovey1,2 1University Of Western Australia, Perth, Australia, 2Oceans Institute, Perth, Australia Identifying areas of refugia for species vulnerable to climate change is a priority for conservation and management. Extreme climatic events, such as heatwaves, can drive major changes in species distributions in a…

Dr David Fairclough1, Mr Brett Crisafulli1, Dr Gary Jackson1 1Department Of Primary Industries And Regional Development Western Australia, Perth, Australia Realised predictions of the effects of ocean warming include changes to the distribution, abundance and biology of fishes. In the tropical-temperate region off the west coast of Australia, an ocean warming hot-spot, there are few…

Dr Matt Fitzpatrick1, Andrew Gougherty1, Dr Stephen Keller2 1University Of Maryland Center For Environmental Science, Frostburg, United States, 2University of Vermont, Burlington, United States To avoid extirpation under rapid environmental change, species must either adapt or move to newly suitable habitats. Most modeling efforts ignore population-level variation in the relative importance of these two strategies…

Prof William Fagan1, Dr. Kumar Mainali1, Prof. Leslie Ries2, Prof.  Trevor Hefley3 1University Of Maryland, College Park,, United States, 2Georgetown University, Washington,, United States, 3Kansas State University, Manhattan,, United States Facing climate change, species unable to adapt locally must disperse if they are to persist.  But how much dispersal is possible? How can we distinguish…

Dr Micheli Duarte de Paula Costa1, Professor Kerrie A. Wilson1, Mr Philip J. Dyer1, Professor José Henrique Muelbert2, Professor Anthony J. Richardson1,3 1The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia, 2Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Rio Grande, Brazil, 3CSIRO, Brisbane, Australia Ocean warming is expected to displace species towards high latitudes. The Southwestern Atlantic Ocean is among…