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Biased selection of predictor variables used in climate forecast species distribution models.

Dr Jeremy Ringma1, Dr Ascelin Gordon1, Ms Stephanie Hogg1, Dr Yan Wang1 1RMIT, St Kilda, Australia Predicting the likely shift in the distribution of species as a result of climate change has become fundamental research question in the field of conservation biology. A climate forecasted species distribution model (SDM) typically functions by creating a model…

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Marine Ecological Climate Services: user-driven forecasts of life in the Ocean

Dr Mark Payne1 1Technical University Of Denmark (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark A unique but rarely appreciated characteristic of the Ocean is its high predictability: today it is possible to reliably forecast the physical state of the Ocean months, years and even a decade or more into the future. If these physical forecasts can be translated…

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Improving the way U.S. fisheries management accounts for shifting distributions: detection and attribution

Dr Jay Peterson1, Ms Melissa Karp2, Dr. Patrick Lynch1, Mr. Roger Griffis1 1National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, United States, 2ECS Federal, LLC, Fairfax, United States Incorporating species distribution shifts into management decisions depends on the ability to detect that a change has occurred, is occurring, or is likely to occur in the future….

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Challenges in quantifying, interpreting and predicting distributional shifts of marine species

Dr Tara Marshall1, Dr Asta Audzijonyte2, Dr Alan Baudron1, Dr Curtis Champion2, Dr Niall Fallon1, Dr Alan Haynie3, Dr Melissa Haltuch4, Dr Bryony Townhill5, Dr Pieter Daniël van Denderen6, Prof Gretta Pecl2, Dr John Pinnegar5, Prof Malin Pinsky7, Dr Paul Spencer3, Dr Christine Stawitz8, Dr Jim Thorson3 1University Of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom, 2University of…

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Modelling the broad-front migrations of European-African migratory birds

Dr Tom Mason1, Dr Philip Stephens1, Dr Christine Howard1, Dr Chris  Hewison2, Dr Stephen Baillie2, Dr James Pearce-Higgins2, Professor  Stephen Willis1 1Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom, 2British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford, United Kingdom Globally, many migratory species are experiencing more rapid rates of population decline than their resident counterparts, yet little progress has been made…

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Determining pathways into Antarctica for marine biofouling organisms

Ms Arlie Mc Carthy1, Prof Lloyd Peck2, Dr David Aldridge1 1Zoology Department, University Of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 2British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom Vectors and pathways for marine species moving into the Southern Ocean and Antarctic region are extremely poorly understood, making it difficult to attribute them to certain pathways or mechanisms (i.e. anthropogenic…

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Dispersal kernels for predicting animal movement patterns

Miss Laura Merritt1,2, Professor Justin Travis3, Miss Isabel Schödl5, Professor Tom Oliver2, Dr Rob Salguero-Gomez4, Dr Steven White1, Professor James Bullock1 1Centre For Ecology And Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom, 2University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, 3University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom, 4University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, 5University of Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany One response of…

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Is the geographic range of the desert tree, Aloidendron dichotomum, shifting in response to climate change?

Prof Guy Midgley1, Ms Kerry Grey2, Prof Wendy Foden3 1Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa, 2University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa, 3South African National Parks, Cape Town, South Africa The desert tree succulent, Aloidendron dichotomum, occupies a large geographic range stretching between southwestern South Africa and northern Namibia, encompassing both summer and winter rainfall…

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Plant range shifts: Advances, opportunities, and what we still need to know

Dr Emily V Moran1 1UC Merced, Merced, United States Understanding how plants will shift their ranges under climate change is important for three reasons: 1) Plants form the energetic and structural basis of terrestrial ecosystems, 2) As sessile organisms, plants can only disperse as seeds and so may be limited in their range shift capacity,…

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Climate-driven range contractions are more widespread among terrestrial than marine taxa

Dr Jonathan Lenoir1, Dr Romain Bertrand2, Dr Lise Comte3, PhD Luana Bourgeaud4, Dr Tarek Hattab5, Dr Jérôme Murienne4, Dr Gaël Grenouillet4 1UR “Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés” (EDYSAN), UMR7058 CNRS, Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Amiens, France, 2Centre for Biodiversity Theory and Modelling, Theoretical and Experimental Ecology Station, UMR5321 CNRS, Université Toulouse III, Toulouse,…