Temporal fluctuations in a species southern range: mechanisms and implications for estimating edge location
David J Booth (1)
1 Fish Ecology Lab, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123 Broadway 2007 AUSTRALIA David.Booth@uts.edu.au
A key metric for climate-‐change effects on species is the change in position of poleward range edge. However, for marine species, with dispersive larvae, this is problematic. Here, I present temporal patterns (interannual, seasonal) in recruitment of tropical reef fish species into SE Australian waters. A 15-‐year dataset of over 80 fish species indicates large fluctuations in recruit densities among locations, years,species and within a season. The strength of the East Australian current and associated eddies is a weak predictor of recruitment but a poor predictor of overwintering success. Overwintering is strongly related to winter temperatures in some species but only weakly in others. Predictions of range shift for these species under climate change are interpreted in the light of these results.