How well do process-explicit models predict range dynamics under climate change?
Dr Natalie Briscoe1, Dr Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita1, Prof Jane Elith1, A/Prof Roberto Salguero-Gómez2
1The University Of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia, 2Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom
Species distribution models are widely used to forecast species responses to climate change and inform conservation decisions. Most commonly, these models are based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with underlying mechanisms captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes that underpin species range shifts, such as physiology, dispersal, demography, and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. A wide array of process-explicit modelling approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems. In addition, data to parameterise and build these models are often limited, which could reduce their ability to accurately forecast range dynamics. We developed individual-based eco-physiological models that simulate responses of real species to climate change and landscape dynamics. We coupled these models with a sampling module that recorded data required to fit different process-explicit models (e.g. vital rates, dispersal distances, population abundances) under different sampling regimes. Using these simulated datasets, we then tested the ability of different process-explicit distribution models to capture and predict range dynamics. By looking across a range of different case studies and varying species traits and data availability we hope to grant insight into what drives performance of different process-explicit methods, mechanisms that they do and do not capture, and how to best allocate data collection efforts to improve the reliability of range dynamics predictions under climate change.
Biography:
Natalie is a Research Fellow at the University of Melbourne. Her research focuses on understanding how the behaviour, morphology and physiology of animals influences their sensitivity to climate as well as developing and evaluating methods for making more robust predictions of how species are likely to be influenced by future climate change.