An integrative approach to modeling species distribution: combining correlative and mechanistic relationships to predict climate impacts on species
Mr Dan Crear1, Dr. Alistair Hobday2, Dr. Rob Latour1, Dr. Rich Brill1, Dr. Marjorie Friedrichs1, Dr. Pierre St. Laurent1, Dr. Kevin Weng1
1Virginia Institute Of Marine Science, College of William & Mary, Gloucester Point, United States, 2CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia
Climate change has contributed to warming and hypoxia throughout coastal ecosystems, which may impact future species distribution, phenology, and habitat selection. To determine the impact of environmental change on fish, it is critical to understand the underlying physiological mechanisms that drive their movement and behavior. By combining both correlative and mechanistic models, we may be able to achieve more accurate and comprehensive predictions that can be used to understand future climate change impacts on species distribution. We demonstrated this approach on two coastal predatory species, sandbar shark (Carcharhinus plumbeus) and cobia (Rachycentron canadum). We developed correlative relationships from habitat data collected through telemetry or surveys for each species to determine environmental preferences. Mechanistic relationships from physiology data were collected through respirometry experiments and were used to determine environmental thresholds for each species. Correlative and mechanistic relationships were combined to create separate suitable habitat models for both species. The suitable habitat models are being used to forecast the distribution of these species seasonally, for mid-century, and end-of-century. Projections will be distributed to state and federal managers so they will have the flexibility to make decisions based on where species are expected to be at different time scales.
Dan is a PhD candidate at Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary. He received his M.S. from California State University Long Beach and his B.S. in marine biology from the University of New England. His research interests are in fisheries science with a focus on climate change impacts on fisheries.